This Week: Hansel Wei on Why Great Teams Might Not Always Be Great Bets. Read the whole article in Hansel's Zone at GoSportsBet.

As sports bettors, it’s our task to “buy” the lines that we think are undervalued, and avoid the lines we see as overpriced. In another of my articles, I’ve used the analogy of grocery produce – you wouldn’t buy apples at $4.50 each; why buy the Yankees at -350 when there are almost certainly better deals on the board? The object for bettors in any sport is to maximize winnings without risking an excessive amount of capital; however, this is not always as easy as it sounds. After all, the “obvious” winners come at the steepest price, and the most lucrative payouts come with the biggest underdogs; that is, teams that aren’t “supposed” to win. It’s finding a profitable balance that is the key. In this article, I’ll use MLB examples, because that sport is currently in season, but the points made apply to all sports. A quick glance at the standings will tell you which MLB teams are the most profitable. At 48-25, the Detroit Tigers are currently +2138 in moneyline wagers this season. The White Sox, at 46-25 and +1272 are in second place. However, this far into the season, these top teams have established themselves as consistent winners, and betting on them generally comes hand in hand with laying a steep price. Most of Detroit’s profits came at the beginning of the season, when people still expected the “same old” mediocre Detroit Tigers; now, linesmakers have adjusted their estimation of this team. Because these teams generally come at steep prices, their value is minimal. The key, then, is to secure average teams playing above expectations. Instead of making a play on the team that’s led the division all season and is 20 games over .500, try to isolate
the team that has been floundering but has been outpacing their public image. A team’s reputation is based on their overall performance; however, there is often a disparity between how a team performs at home and on the road. The Baltimore Orioles, for instance, are 33-40 overall, with a 13-22 road record. However, at home, they are a respectable 20-18. Although the Orioles are a winning team at home, because of their poor overall record, they are not likely to be more than slight favorites at best when they play at Camden Yards...

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